Poslední komentáře

Prevzato z :http://www.bythom.com/

Ceska Verze: http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&sl=en&tl=cs&u=http:...

When Does Panic Set In?
Dec 29 (commentary)--The Japanese camera makers see their own camera market (i.e. sales in Japan) very well. Too well. They often over-rely on it to gauge what they should be doing next.

Well, if that's the case, there must be some panic afoot in Japan. Consider the top 20 selling interchangeable lens cameras in Japan from Jan 1 through Dec 23 (camera models ordered from best selling to worst within brand):

Canon 37.9% (Kiss2, Kiss3, 50D, 5DII, 7D, 1000D)
Nikon 28% (D90, D5000, D60, D40, D3000)
Panasonic 8.5% (G1, GF1, GH1)
Olympus 4.3% (E-P1, E-520)
Pentax 4.3% (K-m, K-x)
Sony 4% (A300, A350)
Those 20 cameras account for 87% of the DSLR sales in Japan. Nikon and Canon do pretty well in the 13% of cameras I haven't identified so far--add those in and Canon tops 40% and Nikon nears 35%.

Still, we've got four m4/3 cameras grabbing 11.5% of the home market. Think that got anyone's attention? And Pentax's two low-end models outselling Sony's. Think that got Sony's attention? That 5DII being the lone FX body to break the top 20 (at #13 and 2.1%), think that got Nikon's attention? Or how about the D3000 not living up to its potential (14th and 1.8% for a half year of sales isn't matching what either the D40 or D60 did)?

Oh, and does video sell DSLRs? #13, #17, and #19 are highly competent HD video cameras (1080i, variable frame rate, etc.). Hard to say, but it doesn't really look like high end video is truly selling DSLRs en masse yet.

No, the camera companies are atwitter with nervousness. Which is why they should read the following article.

The Inverted Razor Blade
Dec 24 (commentary)--Okay Nikon executives, can I get you out of your box for a moment? Come on out, don't be afraid. It's the holiday season and no one's going to hurt you. There you go. Feeling a little less constrained? Now, just read along with me...

Most business people are aware of the old Razor Blade idea: giving away the Razors and selling the Blades is a time tested method of building a business. The more Razors you give away, the more customers you have for Razor Blades. The basic premise has worked in quite a few markets. Heck, you could even say that Google's business model is a twist on the old Razor Blade idea: give away the searches and sell the results. The more searches that you give away, the more eyeballs you have to sell to those advertisers.

It's bad enough that the Japanese companies don't fully understand how to profit from the Razor Blade tactic. Sony has used it with the Playstation, essentially taking a loss on every game console in order to sell software. But showing that they don't fully understand the underlying idea, they kept making decisions that restrain the Razor Blade market, and they keep making the hardware more complex to create Blades for and adding things to the hardware that they weren't ready to provide Razor Blades for (that BluRay drive has been begging for ubiquitous media, but Sony's movie division wasn't ready to cut prices to exploit it, let alone figure out how to piggyback on the hardware sale).

But the Japanese really don't understand the Inverted Razor Blade. The biggest Inverted Razor Blade company? Apple. Yes, that Apple. Indeed, much of their recent success is so dependent upon the Inverted Razor Blade that they've even post-applied it to the Mac ("we have a store for that").

So what's an Inverted Razor Blade? Drive software that's free and ubiquitous, which sells hardware. Lots of hardware. The first taste of this we got from Apple was the iPod, where the "free" was all those MP3's we ripped or were floating around the Internet. Even buying a song on iTunes is essentially a "free" pass along by Apple: they're not making money on the sale of a song to you, they're just passing along the bare bone costs that media creators impose. This worked well enough that if you go to the Apple Web site, you'll find a Downloads tab, which is essentially a place to find free and ubiquitous software for your Mac (plus for sale software, too, though I don't understand why they haven't pushed that to include an iTunes-like store for the for-sale applications).

The iPhone is another Inverted Razor Blade, and one more relevant to cameras (you're still reading, aren't you, Nikon executives?). Two billion application downloads, a heavy dose of them free, and the rest often trivially priced (I can't count the number of 99 cent apps I've bought...hmm, maybe I should...looks like a bit over 50 low cost apps in my repository).

For months after getting my initial iPhone (I was one of the first day purchasers, though not intentionally, but that's another story), I would show others something I was doing with it and someone else would immediately be hooked. (Apple, if you're reading this, you can send my commission now.) Indeed, Apple now has a slogan for the effect: "There's an app for that." There is. Literally. And it's driving iPhone sales so dramatically that every cell phone maker and carrier has taken notice. The world will be filled with Inverted Razor Blades in the cell phone marketplace soon (iPhone, Pre, Droid, Android, etc.). Heck, even the "hey, we should copy that" folk at Microsoft have taken notice and are trying to figure out how to follow along.

So what's this have to do with cameras? Well, consider this quote from the Financial Times: "History had shown that this kind of freedom was what drove the more profitable 'ecosystems' of computers--where sales of hardware were dependent on a wide variety of useable software." Yep. Been there, did that. (Indeed, remember the Osborne Computer? Remember what I did there? That's right, I made sure a huge range of modest cost software was available for it (plus we gave away a few Blades, too). That low-cost software business grew from nothing to US$9 million in sales in nine months, and that was back in 1981. And it drove Osborne computer sales, which grew from zero to US$73 million in twelve months. At the time Osborne was the fastest growing manufacturer of consumer items ever (now surpassed several times by...you guessed it...other Inverted Razor Blades).)

Okay, so here's the thing: I now have the ability to do Photoshop, pano stitching, HDR, and a host of other things on the pictures taken by my iPhone, many of these in real time. Say what? I can do things in-camera with my iPhone that I can't do with my professional Nikon DSLRs. See anything wrong with that statement?

Oh, Nikon, you try so hard, but you will fail if you keep pounding on the same wall. Yes, you've added things like being able to do a raw conversion in camera, and video editing, but let's face it, you're not a software developer, Nikon. Not even close. You can't even keep your regular software updated for operating system refreshes that are telegraphed more than a year in advance. Meanwhile, Apple has proven that there are tens of thousands of capable programmers out there ready to work 24/7 to cause a piece of hardware to fart (and much more that's actually useful). You see, the answer is not to try to do it yourself. Invert the Razor Blade, Nikon, invert the Razor Blade.

Open the inside of your cameras to the world. Open firmware. Extensible firmware. Customizable firmware. Documented EXPEED. Documented Bayer filtration. Can you imagine how many pieces of software would be available to the world in a matter of weeks? Don't panic, you can still force a base set to remain untouched, much like the iPhone has its protected framework. But by documenting everything and providing the framework to tack on, your cameras would become the "must have" cameras. Done right, and with surprise, you'd own the serious camera market in a matter of months. Seriously.

Yes, I know you just started a subsidiary to write proprietary firmware. But that keeps you just like every other camera company: locked into your own solution.

Yes, I know it's scary to contemplate. It's a different world I'm pushing you towards. But it's a better world. One in which you'll profit handsomely. And you won't have to keep flogging your programmers.

So, as you sit back and enjoy the holidays, think about the future a bit. Think about a different future. A future that'll send your stock skyrocketing and lock up Nikon as the visionary, technology solution to serious imaging.

p.s. You'd still be designing cameras. Great cameras. Great cameras that'll be made even better by the best programmers in the world.

p.p.s. You can go back to your box now. But consider going somewhere else instead.

p.p.p.s. And to all, a good night...